Sat, Nov 7, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 04 | 010 | 119 |
| LAK | 010 | 320 | 15 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:16LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:39LAKDrew DoughtyPPGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 17:34LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 8:37LAKMilan LucicAssists: Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:55LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:57LAKJeff Carter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:42LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:26FLAErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Howden – Grimaldi3:45
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau14:09
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Wilson10:34
xG 0.20–0.37 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pirri – Howden – Grimaldi8:01
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ekblad15:37
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson14:43
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Petrovic18:25
xG 0.40–1.24 (24%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Pearson7:08
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Lewis – Pearson5:55
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Shore5:11
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli14:02
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb19:37
xG 1.28–0.37 (77%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Martinez20:03
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 25–13goals 0–0
- McBain – Forbort12:53
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).