Sat, Nov 7, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 18 | 011 | 231 |
| MTL | 06 | 114 | 313 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Spooner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:09MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 8:51BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Colin Miller, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 8:58MTLLars EllerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Devante Smith-Pelly · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 18:52MTLDavid DesharnaisPPGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 19:12MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:04MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:18MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:19BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36MTLTorrey Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:25BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:57BOSDavid Krejci: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43MTLNathan Beaulieu: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Hayes – Spooner6:48
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Kemppainen6:47
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Hayes – Kemppainen4:28
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Vatrano12:40
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrotman – Miller12:16
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller2:48
xG 0.01–0.04 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug14:36
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:07
xG 1.01–0.16 (86%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:26
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn7:28
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Galchenyuk9:11
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban17:51
xG 1.36–0.49 (73%)attempts 26–14goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu11:21
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry13:09
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).