Sat, Nov 7, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Winnipeg Jets 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 08 | 27 | 323 |
| WPG | 012 | 06 | 010 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 9:44PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.40 xG2–0
- P3 18:25PHIMatt ReadENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.58 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:36WPGAnthony Peluso: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 2:36PHIRyan White: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:18WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:07PHIMatt Read: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:19WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:35PHIBrandon Manning: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:16PHIR.J. Umberger: Interference2 min
- P2 4:16PHIR.J. Umberger: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39WPGBlake Wheeler: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:38WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:39PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:42WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:16PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl8:22
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:14
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Umberger – Gagner – Schenn5:12
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Laughton7:14
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas8:50
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schenn11:28
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Gudas2:10
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Peluso – Cormier2:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers9:20
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry9:01
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:48
xG 0.30–0.78 (28%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma8:21
xG 0.20–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba10:27
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:16
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).