Sat, Nov 7, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 110 | 07 | 225 |
| CGY | 316 | 111 | 14 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Sam Bennett, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:06PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:21CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 17:11CGYSam BennettGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 9:05CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–4
- P2 14:17PITNick BoninoPPAssists: David Perron, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 17:41CGYJohnny GaudreauENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:13PITDavid Perron: Delaying game2 min
- P1 5:16PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
- P1 15:05PITBen Lovejoy: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
- P2 12:19CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42PITBen Lovejoy: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 9:48CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Hornqvist – Bonino3:40
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Sprong – Plotnikov5:39
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Bennett3:55
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Bennett5:03
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin16:50
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Maatta12:18
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Cole18:03
xG 0.26–1.00 (21%)attempts 15–14goals 0–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan13:25
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Colborne14:10
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett10:27
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Raymond – Grant – Jooris5:18
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Hamilton16:31
xG 0.93–0.27 (77%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:51
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Russell – Brodie2:15
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).