Sun, Nov 8, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 215 | 03 | 28 | 426 |
| DET | 18 | 03 | 011 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22DALPatrick SharpPPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 15:19DALValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–0
- P1 19:33DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Mike Green · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 18:52DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–1
- P3 19:41DALCody EakinENAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:04DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:57DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:53DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:40DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:09DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:05DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09DALVernon Fiddler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eakin – Janmark10:30
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin11:53
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Faksa – Shore – Nichushkin8:37
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour6:32
xG 0.03–0.21 (14%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Jokipakka10:59
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Jokipakka2:30
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:58
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Pulkkinen – Athanasiou5:34
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin13:41
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening9:45
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:49
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ericsson – DeKeyser13:53
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green16:54
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko11:10
xG 0.61–0.74 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).