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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 8, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark

Vancouver Canucks 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Overtime

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.

NJD winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
VAN1132100701331
NJD261170312428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:20VANChris HigginsAssists: Jared McCann, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:18NJDAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.34 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:32NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Lee Stempniak, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:31NJDSergey KalininAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 11:57VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Jake Virtanen, Sven Baertschi · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:06VANSven BaertschiAssists: Ben Hutton, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:33NJDKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 4:40NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:06NJDJordin Tootoo: Holding2 min
  3. P1 12:42NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 12:42VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:11NJDAndy Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 8:14VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 12:04VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 12:04NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 12:04VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
  10. P2 12:04NJDJordin Tootoo: Misconduct10 min
  11. P2 14:11VANJake Virtanen: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 14:11NJDBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 14:24VANYannick Weber: Holding2 min
  14. P2 14:52VANAlexander Edler: Boarding2 min
  15. P2 17:35NJDKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
  16. P2 17:35VANDaniel Sedin: Slashing2 min
  17. P2 18:42NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
  18. P3 3:35NJDJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min
  19. P3 9:55NJDAdam Larsson: Interference5 min
  20. P3 9:55NJDAdam Larsson: Game misconduct10 min
  21. P3 16:42VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
  22. OT 2:14VANDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
47% to win54% to win
← VAN attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Gionta
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANNJD
31Shots on goal28
3.0Expected goals3.1
58Shot attempts42
44Faceoffs won36
6Power plays5
34Penalty minutes49
7Hits8
4Blocked shots11
3Giveaways5
4Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata4:28

    xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0

  2. Burrows – Dorsett – McCann2:22

    xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Higgins – Dorsett – McCann2:52

    xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0

  4. Vrbata – Higgins – Horvat4:26

    xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEdler – Biega10:43

    xG 0.35–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0

  2. Hamhuis – Weber8:23

    xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1

  3. Bartkowski – Hutton10:44

    xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestZajac – Palmieri – Kalinin6:19

    xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0

  2. Gionta – Farnham – O'Neill5:50

    xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  3. Tootoo – Tlusty – Josefson5:23

    xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1

  4. Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique8:49

    xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMoore – Severson9:51

    xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2

  2. Greene – Larsson10:05

    xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0

  3. Schlemko – Merrill11:27

    xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.1 xGVAN 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #46 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.69 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.

NJD winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).