Sun, Nov 8, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 022 | 29 | 236 |
| CHI | 29 | 06 | 213 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:35CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 2:56EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P3 13:28CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:09EDMAndrej SekeraAssists: Teddy Purcell, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:54CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:05EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:44EDMIiro Pakarinen: Holding2 min
- P1 14:44CHIMarcus Kruger: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:41EDMBrandon Davidson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:16CHIViktor Tikhonov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:48EDMAnton Lander: Holding2 min
- P3 19:46EDMOscar Klefbom: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Eberle – Lander7:00
xG 0.76–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Pakarinen – Miller2:02
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Draisaitl3:34
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Letestu – Purcell – Lander2:35
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson3:30
xG 0.70–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gryba – Reinhart11:22
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nurse13:31
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin13:29
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 3–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw2:20
xG 0.01–0.37 (2%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Tikhonov – Kruger5:18
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Shaw – Dano – Kero7:32
xG 0.09–0.59 (13%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson2:05
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg17:43
xG 0.39–0.89 (31%)attempts 16–19goals 2–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk16:34
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).