Tue, Nov 10, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 212 | 07 | 328 |
| FLA | 211 | 111 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–1
- P1 7:13CGYDavid JonesAssists: Joe Colborne · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:43FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Alexander Petrovic · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:53FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 6:35CGYDavid JonesAssists: Matt Stajan, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:32CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.38 xG3–3
- P3 8:11FLAJaromir JagrGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:06CGYJosh Jooris: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:31FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:31CGYJosh Jooris: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:54CGYKris Russell: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Colborne12:20
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Grant – Ferland – Jooris5:18
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett13:22
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan14:21
xG 0.51–1.90 (21%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell4:52
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton14:16
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Wideman10:52
xG 0.16–0.57 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau15:10
xG 1.63–0.74 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:36
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Bolland – Pirri – Grimaldi10:04
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Howden9:41
xG 0.03–0.23 (13%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Gudbranson16:00
xG 1.64–0.88 (65%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad16:23
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Petrovic14:59
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).