Tue, Nov 10, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 5, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 310 | 23 | 013 | 526 |
| NSH | 112 | 312 | 314 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:54OTTZack SmithAssists: Jared Cowen, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 6:55NSHColton SissonsAssists: Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 19:23OTTZack SmithSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 6:23NSHShea WeberPPAssists: James Neal, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 7:57NSHRoman JosiUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 8:51NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Seth Jones, Gabriel Bourque · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 9:32OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
- P2 19:08OTTCurtis LazarPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 2:29NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Ryan Ellis, Austin Watson · Slap, 0.02 xG5–5
- P3 10:09NSHBarret JackmanGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.45 xG5–6
- P3 11:43NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Austin Watson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:55NSHJames Neal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:11OTTJared Cowen: Kneeing2 min
- P1 14:18NSHSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:37OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min
- P2 6:15OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:26NSHMiikka Salomaki: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone14:21
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Ryan – Prince – Zibanejad11:56
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Neil – Smith – Lazar6:12
xG 0.16–0.58 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau10:22
xG 0.04–1.05 (4%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cowen – Ceci15:47
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Wiercioch – Borowiecki13:09
xG 0.47–1.00 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 0–3
- Methot – Karlsson15:58
xG 0.30–0.89 (25%)attempts 14–23goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Wilson – Smith10:46
xG 1.13–0.15 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Bourque – Watson – Sissons5:18
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–6goals 4–0
- Fisher – Neal – Forsberg14:43
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Hodgson – Jarnkrok – Salomaki9:06
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Jones11:57
xG 1.16–0.15 (89%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Ellis – Ekholm14:46
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 3–1
- Weber – Josi18:02
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 26–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).