Tue, Nov 10, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 07 | 213 | 328 |
| MIN | 17 | 411 | 010 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 11:45WPGBryan LittleAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:30MINThomas VanekAssists: Christian Folin, Nate Prosser · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 5:59MINErik HaulaSHAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 9:54MINThomas VanekGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 12:44MINChris PorterAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 10:05WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 12:40WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:36WPGNic Petan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:04MINKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:04WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:48MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:39WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:36WPGToby Enstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:55WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:37WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:14MINThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:49WPGJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Perreault2:43
xG 0.84–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:43
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan2:59
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Stafford – Copp3:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien17:37
xG 1.08–0.60 (64%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
- Stuart – Trouba2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma7:09
xG 0.24–0.23 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Granlund6:52
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter11:27
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Vanek – Schroeder – Haula3:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Schroeder – Coyle4:58
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba12:51
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 12–2goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon15:04
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
- Prosser – Brodin2:22
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).