Tue, Nov 10, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 06 | 28 | 425 |
| SJS | 011 | 114 | 111 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 3:30NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 10:14SJSJoel WardAssists: Tomas Hertl, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 0:45NYIJohnny BoychukGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Mikhail Grabovski · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 14:49SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:55NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Brock Nelson, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:02SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:46NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P1 18:37NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:09NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:09SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:45
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee10:31
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bernier – Grabovski – Kulemin9:44
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson11:56
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Strait11:04
xG 0.09–0.30 (24%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan17:24
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 17–23goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Leddy15:11
xG 0.29–0.63 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Donskoi – Tierney10:29
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson13:12
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Hertl11:00
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 16–7goals 2–2
- Ward – Nieto – Hertl2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Tennyson10:37
xG 0.35–0.02 (93%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun15:41
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Martin – Burns12:34
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).