Wed, Nov 11, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 213 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 338 |
| PIT | 214 | 01 | 117 | 02 | 2 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Beau Bennett · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 4:12MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:16PITOlli MaattaAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 7:47MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 14:12MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Torrey Mitchell, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 13:35PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 2. PIT David Perron scored
- 3. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:11PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:18MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:16PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:55MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:23PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 14:12PITSidney Crosby: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:43MTLTom Gilbert: Holding2 min
- OT 2:34MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:11
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn10:10
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Galchenyuk8:50
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise10:04
xG 0.22–1.14 (16%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban15:27
xG 0.87–0.70 (55%)attempts 19–12goals 2–2
- Emelin – Petry14:08
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Emelin3:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino9:59
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron11:58
xG 1.17–0.72 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Sprong7:03
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Bennett11:03
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta8:14
xG 1.08–0.16 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Cole6:05
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin15:12
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).