Wed, Nov 11, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 110 | 26 | 13 | 427 |
| ANA | 115 | 06 | 216 | 00 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 4:23EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:56ANAShawn HorcoffAssists: Cam Fowler, Chris Stewart · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 5:38EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 6:44ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sami Vatanen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 8:19EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 1:16EDMTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Anders Nilsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:08EDMEric Gryba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:29ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:53ANAPatrick Maroon: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:53EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:53ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:57EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl14:42
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Gazdic – Pakarinen – Miller9:03
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Purcell – Eberle – Lander11:05
xG 0.44–0.86 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Letestu – Yakupov10:55
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Klefbom17:16
xG 0.78–0.60 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nurse17:27
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Gryba – Reinhart14:31
xG 0.61–1.10 (35%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Cogliano – Stewart11:04
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Maroon – Wagner6:48
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:45
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg14:06
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen14:15
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler18:33
xG 1.00–0.82 (55%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm17:33
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).