Thu, Nov 12, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 312 | 19 | 532 |
| PHI | 14 | 17 | 09 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:35WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:07PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:54WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 10:39WSHJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.31 xG3–2
- P2 17:27WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Tom Wilson · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 13:51WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Marcus Johansson, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:02WSHAndre Burakovsky: Kneeing2 min
- P1 14:04WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:56WSHMatt Niskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:46WSHTom Wilson: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09PHIMichael Raffl: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58PHIRyan White: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:58WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:44PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:42PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky12:50
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson7:25
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Williams – Beagle8:28
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov7:57
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner18:04
xG 1.65–0.46 (78%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Chorney – Orlov11:59
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt13:34
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier8:26
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:58
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Laughton9:28
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Lecavalier – Gagner – Schenn8:36
xG 0.26–0.82 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Zotto2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Gudas2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).