Thu, Nov 12, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 18 | 06 | 12 | 321 |
| CAR | 219 | 03 | 014 | 03 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Eric Staal, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 8:17CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Jay McClement, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 15:50MINJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 9:41MINThomas VanekAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:50MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:21MINChristian Folin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:20MINNate Prosser: Elbowing2 min
- OT 0:55MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund14:41
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter15:50
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Carter – Schroeder – Coyle7:48
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Porter – Haula – Bertschy5:47
xG 0.01–0.91 (1%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin2:21
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba3:22
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:58
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Nash – Skinner10:08
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Nestrasil – Nordstrom4:53
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Staal – Versteeg – Staal3:53
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm3:57
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Hanifin15:02
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk21:19
xG 0.97–0.39 (71%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Liles – Pesce16:40
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).