Thu, Nov 12, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 115 | 08 | 131 |
| TBL | 011 | 17 | 211 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:59TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:45CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:51TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 18:27TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:53CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:05TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:02TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:03TBLErik Condra: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:56TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:23CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan13:30
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Grant – Ferland – Jooris5:27
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett9:39
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Stajan – Jones – Ferland2:01
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie17:13
xG 0.86–0.34 (71%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton13:20
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Wideman – Smid7:03
xG 0.03–0.20 (15%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Kucherov13:32
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Brown – Paquette – Drouin6:30
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Condra8:45
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Namestnikov11:40
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr12:49
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Coburn – Stralman2:24
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman14:34
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).