Thu, Nov 12, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 07 | 012 | 132 |
| LAK | 18 | 110 | 04 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:41NYIBrock NelsonAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:23LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 3:28LAKMilan LucicGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:53NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:38NYICalvin de Haan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:20NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P3 2:34LAKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:50LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Grabovski – Kulemin11:14
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee8:04
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:15
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson13:31
xG 0.25–0.82 (23%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy16:33
xG 1.07–0.55 (66%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Strait9:46
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan15:05
xG 0.77–0.88 (47%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – Shore10:42
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff9:30
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:02
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson12:04
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb17:57
xG 1.30–0.88 (60%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – McBain10:25
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:13
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).