Fri, Nov 13, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 210 | 08 | 228 |
| PIT | 05 | 010 | 114 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:08CBJScott HartnellAssists: Brandon Saad, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 12:49CBJBrandon SaadPPGWGAssists: Ryan Murray, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 19:02PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Kris Letang, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:12CBJGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:19PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:13PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:21CBJKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:22PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28CBJRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 16:19PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:01CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:17CBJKevin Connauton: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:57CBJKevin Connauton: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Calvert – Karlsson9:01
xG 0.78–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Saad9:35
xG 0.44–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Johansen – Jenner8:45
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Connauton6:30
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard13:33
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Murray9:37
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Perron9:01
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Sprong3:54
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Bennett9:48
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino7:54
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin10:56
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Cole9:22
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta13:38
xG 0.28–0.93 (23%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).