Fri, Nov 13, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Calgary Flames 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 19 | 17 | 12 | 329 |
| WSH | 09 | 010 | 215 | 02 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:35CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 1:32CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 5:41WSHMichael LattaAssists: Brooks Laich, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 15:12WSHJay BeagleAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:40CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:16WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:10CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 14:22WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P3 2:28CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:28CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:28WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Bollig – Ferland6:29
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett12:25
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Colborne13:07
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:18
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell7:41
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Engelland – Wideman7:14
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton12:07
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky8:50
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Laich – Latta – Wilson7:39
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Williams – Beagle8:02
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov8:45
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt2:17
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner20:26
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 24–19goals 1–1
- Carlson – Schmidt13:26
xG 0.56–0.52 (51%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).