Sat, Nov 14, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 08 | 110 | 123 |
| BOS | 012 | 312 | 07 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:18BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Matt Beleskey, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 11:10BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Zach Trotman · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 17:00BOSTorey KrugAssists: Brad Marchand, Kevan Miller · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 6:37DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:12DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:38BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:09BOSZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:18BOSAdam McQuaid: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist3:36
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Glendening – Larkin2:22
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Athanasiou2:33
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin6:30
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser16:28
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Kindl – Marchenko11:51
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Green – Kindl2:33
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Beleskey – Connolly7:35
xG 0.52–0.16 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Vatrano11:55
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly2:16
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Hayes – Spooner8:48
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Trotman10:58
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- McQuaid – Krug5:01
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Trotman7:04
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).