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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Florida Panthers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA172619011523
TBL16211110010428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:48FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:22TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: JT Brown · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:02TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:39FLANick BjugstadAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P2 4:47FLABrandon PirriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
  6. P2 7:49TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:56TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: JT Brown, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:22FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
  2. 2. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
  3. 3. TBL Brian Boyle stopped
  4. 4. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
  5. 5. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 9:03TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:55FLABrandon Pirri: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P2 4:47TBLMatt Carle: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  4. P2 11:25FLAShawn Thornton: Elbowing2 min
  5. P3 3:08TBLCedric Paquette: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 10:20TBLCedric Paquette: Interference2 min
  7. P3 10:20FLAQuinton Howden: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 10:20FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 10:20TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 10:20FLAShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 10:20TBLJT Brown: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 19:17TBLRyan Callahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  13. OT 3:09FLADave Bolland: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  14. OT 4:36TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
47% to win54% to win
← FLA attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Bjugstad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLATBL
23Shots on goal28
2.2Expected goals2.8
49Shot attempts56
40Faceoffs won36
4Power plays2
18Penalty minutes22
32Hits23
8Blocked shots16
12Giveaways6
6Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. Bolland – Pirri – Grimaldi10:59

    xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

  2. Jagr – Jokinen – Trocheck12:47

    xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2

  3. Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden6:37

    xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  4. Smith – Bjugstad – Huberdeau14:10

    xG 0.25–1.03 (20%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2

Defence pairs

  1. Petrovic – Ekblad4:37

    xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  2. Kulikov – Petrovic7:01

    xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  3. Campbell – Ekblad14:50

    xG 0.60–0.81 (42%)attempts 17–12goals 2–2

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestFilppula – Boyle – Condra12:34

    xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1

  2. Brown – Paquette – Drouin7:47

    xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0

  3. Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov13:32

    xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0

  4. Callahan – Stamkos – Namestnikov11:58

    xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarle – Garrison15:30

    xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0

  2. Stralman – Hedman13:45

    xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0

  3. Coburn – Sustr16:37

    xG 0.74–0.39 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.8 xGFLA 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #38 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.04 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).