Sat, Nov 14, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, New Jersey Devils 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 05 | 08 | 021 |
| NJD | 110 | 112 | 215 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28NJDDavid SchlemkoGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:44NJDMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 2:09NJDBobby FarnhamAssists: Adam Henrique, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 14:54NJDLee StempniakAssists: Michael Cammalleri, John Moore · Snap, 0.21 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:42NJDStephen Gionta: Holding2 min
- P1 12:45NJDJiri Tlusty: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:28PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:28NJDBobby Farnham: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:09PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:23PITOlli Maatta: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:53NJDBobby Farnham: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:39PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P3 6:40PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:40PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:40NJDSergey Kalinin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino4:40
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron10:45
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Sprong2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Sprong4:48
xG 0.01–0.04 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Cole4:14
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin9:40
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta13:14
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique7:43
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin11:13
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Tlusty – Josefson10:19
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Farnham – O'Neill8:46
xG 0.05–0.46 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Merrill9:46
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson9:36
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson16:16
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).