Sat, Nov 14, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 213 | 14 | 427 |
| STL | 09 | 212 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 6:32STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 8:16STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:17CHITrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Marian Hossa, Marko Dano · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:55CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:13CHIArtem AnisimovENAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:11STLJoel Edmundson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 15:42STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:39CHIJonathan Toews: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 2:37CHIBrandon Mashinter: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:21STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:21STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:21CHIJonathan Toews: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 7:16CHIMarko Dano: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:59CHIPatrick Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:59STLAlex Pietrangelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:16CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:40STLTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:51CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:40STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:56CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMashinter – Garbutt – Kero4:23
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Shaw – Teravainen8:10
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:23
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Dano4:59
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Daley7:10
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook2:29
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson12:55
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko9:36
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gomez – Paajarvi – Jaskin2:52
xG 0.44–0.17 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Backes – Fabbri4:30
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Jaskin4:13
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Parayko4:57
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson6:13
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:42
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).