Sat, Nov 14, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 111 | 16 | 00 | 224 |
| DAL | 110 | 011 | 110 | 15 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41DALJason SpezzaAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 5:15MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 2:26DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 7:15MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Erik Haula, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 3:18DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:42DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P1 5:40MINChris Porter: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:34MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:34DALValeri Nichushkin: Embellishment2 min
- P1 13:30DALJamie Oleksiak: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 18:15MINJason Zucker: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:19DALJamie Benn: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 12:28MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:02MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:27DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:41MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:41DALColton Sceviour: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter12:18
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Carter – Schroeder – Coyle5:54
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula2:33
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund10:29
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba4:45
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Brodin – Folin5:24
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba2:07
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Janmark6:22
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin9:26
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eakin – Janmark2:11
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Roussel – Faksa – Nichushkin4:27
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers14:40
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg12:54
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Benn – Oleksiak8:36
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).