Sat, Nov 14, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 211 | 17 | 325 |
| LAK | 214 | 17 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 18:56LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:17EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall, Eric Gryba · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:35LAKMilan LucicAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 13:53EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:10EDMTaylor HallAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:23LAKNicholas ShoreGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:41LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:24LAKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
- P2 18:08EDMJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:39EDMOscar Klefbom: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:11EDMAnton Lander: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:03LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:15EDMAnton Lander: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl12:33
xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Yakupov9:24
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Lander8:57
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Gazdic – Pakarinen – Miller4:28
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Reinhart9:22
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Fayne – Klefbom11:12
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gryba – Klefbom2:13
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Pearson9:48
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:37
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff7:22
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Brown – Lewis – Shore12:41
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb15:55
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 18–7goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Martinez12:33
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:52
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).