Sun, Nov 15, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 112 | 010 | 126 |
| CHI | 010 | 315 | 116 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:41CGYDavid JonesAssists: Joe Colborne, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P2 6:37CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:40CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:32CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 19:22CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:05CGYDavid Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:18CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:08CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Grant – Bollig – Ferland7:15
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett8:39
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan13:16
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Stajan – Jones – Colborne11:05
xG 0.77–1.17 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell6:20
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton10:58
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Brodie – Hamilton2:02
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Dano10:37
xG 1.18–0.25 (82%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin13:37
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
- Kruger – Shaw – Teravainen10:13
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Mashinter – Garbutt – Kero6:39
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson18:26
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk18:28
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 20–21goals 2–0
- Rozsival – Daley10:41
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).