Mon, Nov 16, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 211 | 17 | 06 | 02 | 326 |
| MTL | 09 | 215 | 18 | 14 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26VANAdam CracknellAssists: Derek Dorsett, Matt Bartkowski · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 17:54VANJared McCannPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 3:17VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Yannick Weber, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 8:40MTLLars EllerSHAssists: Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:53MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 16:52MTLTomas FleischmannAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:25MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:08MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 10:05VANYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:53MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 18:19VANMatt Bartkowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:12MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:12MTLBrian Flynn: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:08VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:46VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:02MTLAlexander Semin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen5:22
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dorsett – Shinkaruk8:19
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Higgins – McCann7:19
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen9:59
xG 0.06–0.37 (15%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bartkowski3:16
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber11:42
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Edler – Weber2:21
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:23
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk5:07
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise9:58
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Eller – Galchenyuk4:33
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban14:56
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Pateryn13:10
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Beaulieu10:39
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).