Mon, Nov 16, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 29 | 06 | 218 |
| STL | 211 | 19 | 08 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Colton Parayko, David Backes · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:13STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 2:16WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 2:52WPGBryan LittleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Anthony Peluso · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 4:24STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:13STLCarl Gunnarsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46WPGMathieu Perreault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33WPGAdam Pardy: Holding2 min
- P1 17:13STLTroy Brouwer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:56STLJeremy Welsh: Holding2 min
- P2 10:31WPGJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31STLTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:28WPGTyler Myers: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:09STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:31STLTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:05WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 9:05WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Perreault10:42
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Stafford – Lowry4:06
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Peluso – Burmistrov – Copp3:34
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Ladd – Scheifele – Ehlers9:08
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Pardy9:30
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:28
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba8:52
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Tarasenko10:49
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Welsh6:52
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Lehtera – Jaskin6:53
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Paajarvi – Fabbri4:53
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko8:20
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo3:08
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).