Tue, Nov 17, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 5, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 314 | 05 | 528 |
| BOS | 29 | 19 | 111 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Melker Karlsson, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:20BOSTyler RandellAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:50BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 15:08SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Paul Martin, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 1:53BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 5:56SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 8:56SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–3
- P2 9:21SJSJoe ThorntonPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 6:28BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Krejci · Snap, 0.01 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:06SJSJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:28BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 8:18BOSTyler Randell: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07BOSRyan Spooner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:16BOSTyler Randell: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:07SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:40SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:20BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Pavelski
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:30
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Wingels – Donskoi – Hertl12:20
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto8:58
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney2:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Dillon2:03
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:34
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Dillon – Mueller7:43
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Krejci – Vatrano13:18
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Hayes – Spooner6:53
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Hayes5:39
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Connolly – Kemppainen6:11
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Krug3:56
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller11:22
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).