Tue, Nov 17, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 019 | 111 | 240 |
| NSH | 28 | 19 | 04 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:33NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:47ANARickard RakellAssists: Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:13NSHJames NealUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 6:13NSHMiikka SalomakiGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 5:33ANAMike SantorelliAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:56NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:56ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:06ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:53ANACarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:25ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:25NSHRoman Josi: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:05ANANick Ritchie: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 0:00NSHBarret Jackman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:35NSHJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P2 9:20ANACarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:18ANACorey Perry: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:51NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:31NSHJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:22NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:58ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Stewart – Maroon7:24
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Hagelin6:23
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell9:14
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Silfverberg – Ritchie2:48
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler11:23
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Holzer – Lindholm10:06
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen7:08
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Bourque – Watson – Sissons4:29
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:10
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson7:14
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Jarnkrok – Salomaki6:22
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Weber – Josi12:53
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones9:12
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm8:38
xG 0.12–0.70 (14%)attempts 3–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).