Wed, Nov 18, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 014 | 110 | 06 | 130 |
| WPG | 111 | 16 | 217 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:44VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 17:29WPGDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 17:15WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 18:26WPGDrew StaffordENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:23VANLuca Sbisa: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 7:19VANLuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:19WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:35WPGDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:31WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:31VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:06WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 3:48VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:48VANJannik Hansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:48WPGAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:11WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:47VANDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:12WPGChris Thorburn: Holding2 min
- P3 11:20VANRyan Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Higgins – Grenier – McCann6:52
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dorsett – Baertschi5:44
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Burrows – Horvat – Virtanen9:23
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen10:58
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev9:45
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev2:48
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Hutton4:48
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:06
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers8:59
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele13:01
xG 0.70–0.61 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp5:24
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers13:44
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba14:31
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Pardy11:34
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).