Thu, Nov 19, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 28 | 08 | 226 |
| BOS | 110 | 218 | 110 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Brett Connolly · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:12MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 7:37BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Krejci, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 11:21BOSLoui ErikssonPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 13:37MINJordan SchroederAssists: Ryan Suter, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 4:14BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Krejci, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:57BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:57MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:57BOSJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:34MINBrett Bulmer: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:34BOSMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:34BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:34MINBrett Bulmer: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:35BOSZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 1:46MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:31MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:02MINThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:53BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:15MINBrett Bulmer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:21BOSColin Miller: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:21MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:21BOSTyler Randell: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:21BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kemppainen won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Schroeder – Coyle4:19
xG 0.60–0.04 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Schroeder – Coyle4:54
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter14:50
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Pominville – Carter – Granlund3:48
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon11:59
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Prosser – Dumba4:51
xG 0.08–0.06 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba8:51
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Beleskey8:50
xG 0.36–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Spooner – Connolly – Kemppainen4:31
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Randell – Kemppainen2:55
xG 0.03–0.03 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Vatrano2:09
xG 0.01–0.02 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller10:43
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Chara – Trotman15:56
xG 0.36–0.23 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller3:18
xG 0.08–0.35 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).