Thu, Nov 19, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 06 | 013 | 025 |
| OTT | 08 | 211 | 110 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:24OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 18:15OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 19:18OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 7:16CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:09CBJCody Goloubef: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 14:37OTTCurtis Lazar: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:37CBJKevin Connauton: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:23OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P2 1:08OTTMark Borowiecki: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:44CBJBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:25OTTMatt Puempel: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:05CBJCam Atkinson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:05OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:28CBJBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:57OTTMark Stone: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:05OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:05CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:46CBJDavid Savard: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 15:46CBJDavid Savard: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Atkinson – Johansen2:17
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jenner – Saad7:47
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Bourque – Calvert – Karlsson8:04
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Saad2:11
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Murray12:49
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Connauton9:21
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef2:12
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Lazar6:38
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau7:07
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Stone – Zibanejad – Puempel10:01
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman9:58
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Borowiecki4:12
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci5:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).