Thu, Nov 19, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 07 | 17 | 121 |
| TBL | 110 | 07 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:47TBLAlex KillornAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 13:43NYRDominic MooreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 18:55TBLValtteri FilppulaSHGWGAssists: JT Brown · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:12NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:54NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:54TBLJonathan Marchessault: Embellishment2 min
- P1 13:19NYRDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:19TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:43TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P3 3:51TBLAndrej Sustr: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:25TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:25NYRKevin Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P3 18:34TBLBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Miller8:17
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes9:08
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Fast8:32
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello14:51
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Yandle11:26
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal11:30
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle2:56
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Blunden – Vermin5:15
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov14:13
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Condra – Brown10:33
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Marchessault9:20
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Garrison10:20
xG 0.24–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Garrison – Witkowski2:03
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman2:05
xG 0.08–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).