Fri, Nov 20, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 04 | 18 | 05 | 2 | 225 |
| CAR | 012 | 010 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:47CARBrad MaloneAssists: Justin Faulk, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 16:27TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Leo Komarov, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Chris Terry stopped
- 2. TOR Peter Holland scored
- 3. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 4. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 5. CAR Riley Nash scored
- 6. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 7. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 8. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 9. CAR Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 10. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:40CARBrad Malone: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:43CARBrad Malone: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:43TORMichael Grabner: Embellishment2 min
- P1 18:40TORByron Froese: Holding2 min
- P1 19:14TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:19CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:58TORShawn Matthias: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:44CARElias Lindholm: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- OT 2:13CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Grabner – Holland5:46
xG 0.64–0.27 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak11:38
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Boyes – Lupul – Holland2:22
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Froese5:44
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly3:16
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Marincin8:57
xG 0.47–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly16:57
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nash – Nordstrom11:08
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:13
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Terry12:34
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- McClement – Gerbe – Malone8:36
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Faulk11:49
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Liles – Hanifin4:48
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Pesce16:27
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).