Fri, Nov 20, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Montréal Canadiens 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 311 | 111 | 16 | 528 |
| NYI | 110 | 115 | 111 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52MTLJeff PetryAssists: Brian Flynn, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 11:57NYIBrock NelsonAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 12:32MTLTomas FleischmannAssists: David Desharnais · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 18:17MTLNathan BeaulieuAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 0:39NYITravis HamonicAssists: Frans Nielsen, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 14:49MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Dale Weise · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 7:25NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:41MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:18MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 12:49NYINikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:55MTLGreg Pateryn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:28NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:28MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:19MTLJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Weise12:03
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Semin – Smith-Pelly – Flynn3:30
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Byron – Eller – Galchenyuk4:06
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Smith-Pelly5:25
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu17:37
xG 0.95–0.32 (75%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Pateryn13:51
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban13:20
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson16:58
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:34
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee10:20
xG 0.48–0.62 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Bernier – Grabovski – Kulemin7:51
xG 0.11–0.56 (16%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy18:37
xG 0.99–0.26 (79%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Boychuk – de Haan16:19
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Strait10:07
xG 0.29–1.08 (21%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).