Fri, Nov 20, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 1, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 112 | 04 | 120 |
| EDM | 19 | 16 | 312 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall, Brandon Davidson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:04NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: David Schlemko, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:12EDMOscar KlefbomGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 3:23EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P3 13:18EDMMark LetestuUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 17:29EDMTaylor HallENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:47NJDLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P1 19:17NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:41EDMBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46EDMAnton Lander: Holding2 min
- P2 12:53EDMEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P2 15:19NJDMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:54NJDStephen Gionta: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:59NJDJacob Josefson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:19NJDBobby Farnham: Interference2 min
- P3 8:44EDMMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique5:48
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Zajac2:46
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Gionta – Farnham – O'Neill6:11
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Tlusty – Josefson5:01
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Severson4:51
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson9:11
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson9:06
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Letestu – Yakupov9:16
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl5:44
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:02
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Lander – Pakarinen9:33
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Klefbom10:22
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Gryba – Nurse12:06
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Davidson – Reinhart12:11
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).