Sat, Nov 21, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 013 | 013 | 036 |
| OTT | 17 | 216 | 18 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16OTTMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Cody Ceci, Mike Hoffman · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:22OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 17:25OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Zack Smith, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 1:36OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.04 xG0–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:08OTTAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:08PHISam Gagner: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:08PHISam Gagner: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:08PHISam Gagner: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 8:56OTTMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:45OTTChris Wideman: Holding2 min
- P1 16:52PHIMatt Read: Holding2 min
- P2 12:39OTTChris Neil: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 12:39PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:39OTTChris Neil: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:39OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:31PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:31OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:35PHIRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:25OTTCody Ceci: Interference2 min
- P3 19:50OTTMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:50PHIBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Raffl – Bellemare7:51
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier8:58
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Gagner – Read – Couturier2:03
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn10:37
xG 0.11–0.56 (17%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas14:43
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Schultz – Schenn11:30
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto2:58
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Lazar5:20
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman9:22
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau7:43
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Zibanejad – Puempel9:37
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Wideman2:08
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman9:13
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:16
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).