Sat, Nov 21, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 013 | 09 | 030 |
| TBL | 06 | 39 | 29 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:57TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Andrej Sustr, Joel Vermin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:35TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:49TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 5:29TBLBrian BoyleAssists: JT Brown · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 10:01TBLJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:25TBLLuke Witkowski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:25ANAChris Stewart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:25TBLLuke Witkowski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:11ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:12TBLJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:12ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:12ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:12ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:12TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:03ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:39ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Silfverberg – Ritchie9:32
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Hagelin12:24
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell8:39
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Holzer12:44
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Manson13:26
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Stoner – Vatanen3:03
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov5:45
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Condra – Brown2:36
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Boyle – Callahan – Brown4:45
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Condra4:51
xG 0.05–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr12:50
xG 0.71–0.31 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Coburn – Witkowski2:36
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carle – Witkowski3:43
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).