Sat, Nov 21, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 19 | 111 | 329 |
| PIT | 012 | 115 | 012 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joel Ward, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:38PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 13:06SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 8:27SJSPaul MartinAssists: Joonas Donskoi · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:14SJSMelker Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:40SJSMike Brown: Kneeing2 min
- P1 13:23PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P1 16:21PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min
- P2 6:39SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:21SJSPaul Martin: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:41PITDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P3 11:04SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:41PITDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Donskoi7:28
xG 0.77–0.22 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Brown – Nieto – Tierney4:20
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wingels – Hertl – Goldobin6:11
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson10:35
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:29
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns11:59
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon2:02
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist8:30
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Bonino – Bennett4:27
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron8:44
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov4:56
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin12:28
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Cole – Clendening9:20
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Letang13:08
xG 0.52–0.90 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).