Sat, Nov 21, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 05 | 09 | 022 |
| DAL | 110 | 05 | 217 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 7:11DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–2
- P3 9:04DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:51DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P1 19:57DALJyrki Jokipakka: Delaying game2 min
- P2 2:11DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:11BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:50BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P2 8:54BUFEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:54BUFEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:01BUFZach Bogosian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:30DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:21BUFTyler Ennis: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ennis – Foligno – Larsson5:56
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Deslauriers2:42
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – Foligno – Larsson2:56
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel11:03
xG 0.60–0.78 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Ristolainen11:36
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe16:56
xG 0.76–0.96 (44%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Franson12:58
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Janmark11:27
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour7:52
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Nichushkin9:21
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin10:44
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg15:03
xG 1.03–0.65 (61%)attempts 27–10goals 1–0
- Oduya – Oleksiak2:10
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Oduya – Demers6:02
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).