Sun, Nov 22, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
San Jose Sharks 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 07 | 412 | 529 |
| CBJ | 05 | 219 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:27SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward · Snap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 5:30CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Kerby Rychel, Josh Anderson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 6:48CBJBoone JennerAssists: William Karlsson, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 1:23CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 6:13SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Justin Braun, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 11:25SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joel Ward, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 13:15SJSBrenden DillonGWGAssists: Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 18:44SJSJoe PavelskiENUnassisted · Snap, 0.74 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:11CBJKerby Rychel: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:50CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:50SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:03SJSTommy Wingels: Interference2 min
- P2 8:57CBJRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:54SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 10:29SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P2 14:31CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:18CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:44CBJScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:44CBJScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:49
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Donskoi5:28
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 1–2
- Marleau – Donskoi – Hertl4:42
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Wingels – Tierney3:33
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:24
xG 0.39–0.21 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Burns – Vlasic3:48
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Braun2:32
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Anderson – Rychel3:33
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Atkinson11:27
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Calvert4:33
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Jenner – Saad – Karlsson7:00
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 2–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBodnarchuk – Prout10:54
xG 1.05–0.17 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Connauton – Murray15:01
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Johnson – Savard18:08
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 11–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).