Sun, Nov 22, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 010 | 14 | 223 |
| MTL | 010 | 29 | 28 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:41NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 9:37MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Dale Weise, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 14:09MTLTomas FleischmannSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 11:53NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 16:31MTLAlex GalchenyukPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:51MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:47NYIBrian Strait: Interference2 min
- P2 5:12MTLNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:22NYICasey Cizikas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P2 19:03NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P3 5:01MTLAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49MTLDale Weise: Holding2 min
- P3 13:53MTLNathan Beaulieu: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:25NYITaylor Beck: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 18:38NYIMatt Martin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:38NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson13:18
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:25
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee8:11
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Beck7:42
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy15:12
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Boychuk – de Haan12:59
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Strait – Pelech10:15
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto9:25
xG 0.89–0.03 (97%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Semin – Byron – Flynn6:00
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise9:20
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher7:08
xG 0.08–0.67 (11%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Pateryn11:41
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban14:11
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Petry – Beaulieu13:46
xG 0.33–0.87 (28%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).