Mon, Nov 23, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 0, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 010 | 010 | 033 |
| WSH | 07 | 08 | 115 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:28WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:25WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 1:53EDMEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:45EDMEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:28WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:28WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:21EDMNail Yakupov: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl13:14
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Yakupov7:57
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Gazdic – Pakarinen4:06
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:47
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Klefbom13:05
xG 0.87–0.28 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Gryba – Davidson9:49
xG 0.51–0.25 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Fayne – Davidson2:01
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov13:35
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Galiev6:16
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson6:17
xG 0.11–0.43 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:16
xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Schmidt17:26
xG 0.72–0.86 (45%)attempts 20–27goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov7:13
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner16:16
xG 0.31–0.76 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).