Mon, Nov 23, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 18 | 011 | 01 | 1 | 429 |
| TOR | 012 | 316 | 010 | 04 | 0 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 12:39BOSZac RinaldoAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Tuukka Rask · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 11:54TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:56TORLeo KomarovAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 14:40BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Landon Ferraro · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 16:09TORTyler BozakAssists: Shawn Matthias, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.34 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 2. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 3. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 5. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 6. BOS David Krejci scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:36BOSBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:12BOSAdam McQuaid: Kneeing2 min
- P2 5:54TORShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52TORMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:17BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:17BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:59BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P2 17:59TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:15TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:15BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:15BOSZach Trotman: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:59TORMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:18BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Hayes11:24
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro5:31
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Spooner – Connolly – Kemppainen8:42
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey10:53
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller10:50
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug9:22
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Matthias – Bozak10:38
xG 0.95–0.12 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri9:47
xG 0.79–0.29 (74%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Lupul – Grabner – Spaling6:59
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Boyes – Holland – Froese6:41
xG 0.10–0.63 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner12:03
xG 1.29–0.27 (83%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Polak – Gardiner4:27
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Harrington6:11
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).