Mon, Nov 23, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 3, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 118 | 17 | 17 | 332 |
| FLA | 04 | 115 | 015 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Milan Lucic, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:07FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 17:16LAKAlec MartinezGWGAssists: Jordan Nolan, Kyle Clifford · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 1:05LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:32FLAQuinton Howden: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:49FLAWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:13LAKMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:54FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:47LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19LAKJake Muzzin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 5:16LAKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:37LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Pearson9:48
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:06
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Andreoff – Shore8:10
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Nolan5:21
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain9:24
xG 0.81–0.21 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb16:59
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Martinez13:25
xG 0.25–0.71 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Pirri – Bjugstad10:33
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Howden – Trocheck3:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:10
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden6:16
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Petrovic9:22
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson14:23
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Campbell – Ekblad14:01
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).