Mon, Nov 23, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 17 | 313 | 429 |
| WPG | 19 | 07 | 05 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:40WPGToby EnstromAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 16:43COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Francois Beauchemin · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 6:45COLCody McLeodGWGAssists: Zach Redmond, Blake Comeau · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 16:11COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 18:50COLBlake ComeauENAssists: Carl Soderberg, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:46COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:46WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:25COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:22COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:24WPGDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:00WPGToby Enstrom: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:31
xG 0.83–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – McLeod10:47
xG 0.93–0.80 (54%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Skille – Wagner – Everberg5:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen11:31
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Gormley11:50
xG 1.04–0.13 (89%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson16:26
xG 1.22–0.43 (74%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie17:05
xG 0.12–0.72 (15%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Scheifele12:30
xG 0.49–0.38 (57%)attempts 17–4goals 0–2
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp7:10
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:42
xG 0.59–0.83 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers8:54
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba6:44
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Stuart – Trouba10:29
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Myers14:47
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).