Tue, Nov 24, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 7, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 26 | 26 | 38 | 720 |
| DAL | 011 | 112 | 314 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:10OTTBobby RyanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:49OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 7:04DALPatrick SharpAssists: Cody Eakin, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:33OTTMark StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 17:41OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 4:07OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar · Snap, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 6:07DALJamie BennSHAssists: Jordie Benn · Backhand, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 8:04DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 10:31OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–3
- P3 16:48DALJamie BennAssists: Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.20 xG6–4
- P3 18:18OTTMike HoffmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG7–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:46DALJason Spezza: Interference2 min
- P2 2:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:47DALMattias Janmark: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:09OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:45DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Prince4:00
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Zibanejad – Lazar5:19
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Neil – Smith – Lazar3:43
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Prince – Zibanejad4:12
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci13:56
xG 0.78–0.21 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Methot – Ceci2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:29
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin4:41
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour2:03
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Janmark3:40
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour5:26
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Oleksiak8:24
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka3:02
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Oduya – Oleksiak4:37
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).