Wed, Nov 25, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 06 | 04 | 118 |
| NYI | 19 | 112 | 115 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:02NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 5:14NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 18:51NYIFrans NielsenENAssists: Anders Lee, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:47NYIJosh Bailey: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 5:11PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min
- P1 11:36NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:50NYINick Leddy: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:35NYINick Leddy: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35PHIClaude Giroux: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:49PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:40NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:40PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:40NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:53NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:53PHIClaude Giroux: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier9:00
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Raffl – Bellemare3:31
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn3:33
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl8:25
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Gudas17:16
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schenn15:22
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:56
xG 0.32–0.98 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Grabovski – Kulemin9:11
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:51
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson15:10
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee10:29
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy15:15
xG 0.74–0.36 (68%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Strait9:46
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan10:11
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).