Wed, Nov 25, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 09 | 211 | 01 | 332 |
| PIT | 111 | 112 | 110 | 11 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 16:19PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:57PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 1:12STLRobby FabbriAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:49PITBen LovejoyAssists: David Perron, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 14:19STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:03PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Ben Lovejoy · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:08PITIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09STLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P2 9:39STLDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:27STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:25PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:12STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko14:07
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves5:48
xG 0.15–0.12 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri2:14
xG 0.02–0.05 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Brouwer – Fabbri7:11
xG 0.05–0.13 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:12
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
- Bortuzzo – Parayko8:47
xG 0.22–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko2:15
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Plotnikov11:21
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist10:21
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Bennett7:26
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron11:27
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Clendening13:08
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Letang14:37
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Letang – Lovejoy2:56
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).